Please see Governance Overview here.

Jump to a topic:

• Campaign Finance and Elections

• Courts and Privacy

• Government Ethics

• Revenue

Campaign Finance and Elections

Portland auditor seeks to soften city’s voter-approved campaign finance law to align with state. The League and Honest Elections oppose the Portland Auditor’s efforts which would set back many years of reform effort.

Courts and Privacy

By Becky Gladstone

HB 5012: The League was invited again to speak to this Oregon Judicial Department budget bill. League testimony in support was presented. HB 5012 appropriates monies from the General Fund to the department for the Oregon Law Commission, the Council on Court Procedures, conciliation and mediation services in circuit courts, law libraries and the Legal Services Program.

HB 2299, which increases the penalty for unlawful dissemination of intimate image, was heard this week in the House Judiciary committee.

Government Ethics

By Chris Cobey

HB 2454 authorizes the Joint Legislative Audit Committee to appoint a Legislative Audit Officer and to direct the officer to perform specified duties, including investigating, reviewing activities of and oversight of executive branch agencies, taking in and investigating complaints of members of the public concerning executive branch agency programs, conducting performance audits of executive branch agencies and reporting to the committee on work undertaken by the officer. The only witnesses were Reps. Bowman and Wallan. This new legislative branch audit office (LAO) may be redundant with the Secretary of State audits division and the Legislative Fiscal Office (LFO).

Revenue

By Natalie Briggs 

On March 26, the Senate Committee on Finance and Revenue heard the March Economic and Revenue Forecast by Chief Economist Carl Riccadonna and Senior Economist Michael Kennedy. 

The Macro Forecast

At the time of this report, U.S. inflation adjusted growth is 2%, while inflation is holding steady at 2.8% (above the federal reserve’s target of 2%). Unemployment is 4.2%, though it is too early to observe the impact of tariff discussions and federal job cuts. Federal job cuts will not be included in Oregon’s economic statistics until the 1st or 2nd week of March. In 2025, 2% growth is targeted, and economists anticipate a broader set of risks to economic outcomes. Implementation of tariffs could harm or help the Oregon economy, which is sensitive to trade due to the geographic and industrial characteristics of the state – manufacturing and export are higher in Oregon than other states, and Oregon may be impacted more heavily by changes to pacific trading partners, due to geographic location.

Oregon Outlook/Economy

Oregon GDP growth has slowed over the last year, with GDP growth reaching 1.2%. Decrease in GDP is likely tied to state-specific industries, and does not necessarily reflect national GDP trends. At the time of this report, Oregon GDP is below the US average by 1.5%. Should this deviation from national GDP trending continue, a U.S. GDP growth of 2% in 2025 would contrast with Oregon GDP growth of 0.5%. Despite Oregon’s 1.2% growth over the last 4 quarters, GDP growth over the previous two quarters was 2.9%, up markedly from -0.6% in the two quarters prior. This growth of 2.9% could indicate improvement in GDP to come.

Jobs

Oregon has a high percentage of labor force participation compared to the rest of the country, though hiring has slowed. Oregon employment remains at a historic high (since 2000), at 81.9%, with wage growth relatively flat and some recent indication of an upward slope. The number of unemployed Oregonians who have exhausted unemployment benefits is beginning to increase somewhat compared to 2024. Areas with the most job creation include private education, health care, and service industries. Job losses have been observed in areas including construction and manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs are down 2,500 between December 2023 and December 2024, as noted in the previous revenue report, though some signs of manufacturing improvement have been observed recently. Overall, no broad-based gains in employment were observed, and jobs trends do not appear to differ dramatically from national trends. Interest rates remain a challenge for certain industries in Oregon (automotive, housing), and are reflected in the Oregon labor market. These challenges are not unique to Oregon, and other states see similar patterns, such as migration to neighboring states where housing costs are lower.

Outcomes

The Oregon economy is increasingly connected to national trends, in part due to the existence of industries that are impacted by the national economy. As a result, one possible outcome for the Oregon economy is that of a soft landing – a term applied at the national level that refers to slowing of growth post-inflation rather than a transition to recession. The baseline outcome for the Oregon economy is that of a soft-landing. Other outcomes include that of a recession (downside), and continued growth (upside).

Revenue Update

The latest Oregon revenue projection for 2023-2025 has decreased by $89 million compared to prior forecasts, and appropriations have increased by $110 million. 2025-2027 revenue projections have increased to $551 million, and available resources have increased to $350 million. The decrease by $89 million for 2023-2025 is a result of updated information on income taxes, where Oregon personal tax refunds have accounted for $275 million more than in prior projections. Corporate income tax is also lower than expected, due to reconciliation from prior years. The variance in these forecasts may be up to $500 million. Looking forward to the next 10 years, slower growth is expected for Oregon, due to a combination of demographic changes, including an aging population and out migration of high earners, as well as slow capital gains growth. Biennial growth is expected to slow for 2025-2033, to 10.7% (down from 15.1% for 2021-2025). The current budget reserves for Oregon are 10.5% of 2025-2027 general funds.

The legislature will use this Feb. 26th forecast to do a final rebalance of the 2023-25 budget.  Then the May 14th forecast will be the basis for the legislature to determine the 2025-27 state budget. Oregon receives substantial funding from the federal government, so the legislature is watching closely as the March 14th deadline for a federal budget to be passed again looms. Congress also needs to address raising the federal debt limit to authorize paying for bills we’ve already incurred. The federal budget is annual and runs Oct. 1-Sept. 30.  Currently there is only a federal budget until end of day March 14. Additionally, the firing of federal employees who live in Oregon is beginning to affect both large and small communities in Oregon—not only the jobs they were hired to do, but economies with the loss of those employee wages to the communities.

Interested in reading additional reports?  Please see our Climate Emergency, Natural Resources, and Social Policy report sections.